Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: Ta yaya Iran za ta ɗauki fansar kisan masanin nukiliyarta?

  • Daga Frank Gardner
  • BBC security correspondent
Bayanan bidiyo,Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was buried in Tehran following his assassination on Friday

Ta yaya Jamhuriyyar Musulunci ta Iran za ta mayar da martani kan kisan da ya jawo ce-ce-ku-ce na babban masanin kimiyyar nukiliyarta a Juma’ar da ta gabata?

An kashe Mohsen Fakhrizadeh a wani hari mai ɗaure kai a kan wani titi da ke wajen babban birnin ƙasar Tehran, kuma a ranar Litinin aka yi masa jana’izar ban girma ta soji.

Har yanzu babu ƙasar ko wata ƙungiya da ta ɗauki alhakin kisan amma shugabannin Iran sun zargi Isra’ila da hannu a kisan kuma sun sha alwashin ɗaukar fansa.

Wanne zaɓi Iran ke da su na ɗaukar fansa kuma wanne cikas take fuskanta?

Zaɓi na farko:kara karfin shirin nukiliya

Tuni ta fito ta mayar da martaninta. Cikin sa’oi 72 da kaddamar da harin, majalisar dokoki ta amince da kara karfin shirinta na makaman nikiliya, kara yawan ma’adanin Uranium sabanin yarjejeniyar nukiliyar kasar Iran da kasashe mambobin majalisar dinkin duniya JCPOA da gwamnatin Shugaba Trump ta yi watsi da shi a shekara ta 2018.

Baya ga kasancewa babban masanin kimiyyar nukiliya, Mr Fakhrizadeh ya rike babban matsayi a bangaren harkokin tsaro, kamar yadda ‘yar manuniya ta bayyana a irin yanayin manyan jami’an sojin da suka halarci jana’izarsa.

Kara kaimin shirin nukiliyar wata hanya ce ta nuna jajircewa ga kasashen duniya, cewa ayyukan nukiliyar Iran ka iya kaucewa daga wannan kisan gilla. Yayin da duk wani kara kaimi ka iya haifar da zargin ko Iran din na wani yunkurin kera bama-bamai.

Zabi na biyu: amfani da sojojin haya

Iran na da adadi mai yawa na “sojojin haya” masu rike da makamai da ta ke tallafa wa, horarwa da kuma ba su makamai a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya – a Lebanon, Iraqi, Syria da Yemen.

Bayanan bidiyo,The road near Tehran where gunmen opened fire on Mohsen Fakhrizadeh

A lokacin da aka kai hari da jirage da ba su da matuka da makamai masu linzami a kan matatar mai ta kasar Saudi Arabia a cikin watan Satumbar shekara ta 2019, Iran ta hakikance cewa ‘yan tawayen Houthi na kasar Yemen ne suka harba, duk da cewa sun fito ne daga arewa. Hukumar leken asiri ta yammacin duniya sun yi amanna cewa harin daga kasar Iran ne, an kuma kaddamar ne a matsayin wani gargadi ga kasar ta Saudi Arabia kan yadda hakan ka iya lalata tattalin arzikin Saudiyya.

Yanzu Iran na da zabi da dama: za ta iya bayar da umarni da kungiyar Hezbollah a kasar Lebanon ko Hamas a yankin Gaza su harba makaman cikin Isra’ila, za ta iya samun ‘yan Shia masu rike da makamai a Iraqi su kai hari kan dakarun Amurka a can, ko kuma za ta iya samun ‘yan tawayen Houthi na Yemen don su kara yawan hare-harensu kan kasar ta Saudi Arabia. Duk da cewa hakan ka iya haifar da barazanar mayar da mummunan martani.

Zabi na uku: mayar da martanin ramako

Wannan, in ji Iran, zai kasance mafi hadari cikin duka abubuwan: yunkurin hallaka babban jami’an Isra’ila a madadin marigayi Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

Iran ta nuna cewa za ta iya kai hari da ya wuce kan iyakokin yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya. Bayan jerin hare-hare hudu kan masana kimiyya a shekara ta 2010 zuwa 2012, an yi amanna cewa hukumar leken asiri ta Mossad a Isra’ila ce ta kaddamar da harin, an kuma zargi kawar Iran Hezbollah kan hannu da kai harin bam a kan wata motar safa makare da ‘yan yawon bude idon kasar Isra’ila a Bulgaria cikin shekara ta 2012.

Bayanan bidiyo,In 2018, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled what he claimed to be Iran’s secret atomic archive

A shekarun baya-bayan nan, an zargi kungiyar Hezbollah da kasar Iran kan kai munanan hare-hare a kan muradan Isra’ila kan kasar Argentina. A baya-bayan nan, an zargi wakilian kasar Iran a kasashen Turai da kai hari kan masu sukar lamirin manufofin gwamnati.

An yi wa rundunar ‘Islamic Revolutionary Guards’ ta kasar Iran horo na musamman a fannin ayyukan bayanan sirri, da suka hada da na aikata kisan gilla.

Amma kuma kasancewa duka kariyar da aka bai wa Mr Fakhrizadeh ba ta yi amfani ba, bayan da wadanda suka yi masa kisan gilla suka san hanyar da ya saba bi, da kuma lokacin da yake barin inda yake, ya zama abin tunatarwa ga kasar Iran kan gazawarta a bangaren tsaronta.

Iran ta san cewa muddin ta kai hari kai tsaye a Isra’ila, to za ta fuskanci munanan hare-hare a matsayin ramuwa.

Yanzu Isra’ila ba ita kadai ba ce, kasa da take a ware kuma kewaye da kasashen larabawa abokan gaba. A yau tana morar hadin kan da take samu daga Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa da Bahrain da kuma dangantakarta da kasar Saudi Arabia.

Don haka masu tsare-tsare a rundunar sojin Iran za su rika tunani mai zurfi kan yadda za su auna mizanin irin martanin da zai daga martabar kasar, amma ba tare da rura wutar rikici ko kuma mummunan kai hare-hare ta sama kan cibiyar sojinta ba.

Zabi na hudu: kada ta yi komai

Ba lallai ba ne ya kasance kamar yadda ake tunani, zai kasance a karkashin amincewa, a yanzu dai. Duk da cewa jakadan kasar Iran a birnin London ya sha cewa sakamakon zaben shugaban kasar Amurka bai da wani tasiri a gwamnatinsa, batun dai shi ne gwamnatin Biden za ta iya bambanta nesa ba kusa ba wajen kokarin kai wa ga dinke barakar dangantakarta da kasar ta Iran.

Yanzu za a samu muryoyi kadan, musamman a ma’aikatun harkokin waje da duniyar kasuwanci, yin kira ga a shawo kan matsalolin, ko kuma akalla a jinkirta mayar da martani, don bayar da damar yin wata yarjejeniya da fadar White House nan gaba ya kasance cikin nasara.

Zababben shugaban kasar Joe Biden ya riga ya furta cewa yana son ya dawo da Amurka cikin tattaunawa kan yarjejeniyar nukiliyar da shugaba Trump ya watsar. Ga kasar Iran, hakan na nufin dage takunkumin da aka kakaba mata.

“Babban abin da ka iya kawo cikas,” in ji Emile Hokayem ta cibiyar horo kan harkokin mulki, ” shi ne cewa muddin Iran ta furta wasu kalamai marasa dadi, za ta fuskanci barazana gaza yin wata yarjejeniya da gwamnati mai zuwa ta Mista Biden.”

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